How Social Security and Pensions Might Impact How You Arrange Your Nest-Egg.

Few people think about this, but you might want to.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Everyone intuitively understands the need to have a balanced approach to meet retirement needs; however, it’s also important to address risk in light of the long term inflation risk.  

Let’s take a hypothetical example using simple numbers.  And, suppose after all the data gathering, goal setting, and risk assessments have been completed in the financial planning process, June and Ward Cleaver (yes, I am that old) have decided they feel comfortable with a portfolio that’s comprised of 60% bonds and cash and 40% in stocks.  

June and Ward are retiring today after over thirty years of working and saving—they’ve done a lot of thing right—and have accumulated a nest-egg of $1 million.   So, in our simple example, that would indicate their money should be arranged with $600,000 allocated to bonds and cash, and $400,000 to stocks.  Simple.

But, suppose the two of them also have Social Security income—maybe even pension income, as well.  This additional ongoing cash flow shouldn’t be ignored in constructing their allocation.    Again, to keep numbers simple (I’m highly qualified for simple numbers).  Let’s say Ward and June have an additional $30,000 in annual ongoing income to augment their savings.   

What does that $30,000 annual income represent?  How much would someone need to have invested to provide the same income?

Assuming a 4% annual withdrawal rate on assets  – we’ll say that fits June and Ward’s situation  –  that $30,000 represents income on an additional $750,000 in assets… except these assets are illiquid:   June and Ward can only take the income, they can’t ‘cash in’ the principal.   It is like, in effect, an annuity, something some people use to simply ‘purchase’ a lifetime income.   I’m not a big proponent, but they do have their place in some situations—but that’s another story.

Nevertheless, if we consider that $30,000 annual income as actually representing an additional asset, June and Ward really effectively have $1,750,000 in assets, $750,000 of which we’ll consider illiquid and providing an income of $30,000 at 4%, but it never runs out of money.   If 60% of their total retirement ‘assets’ is to be allocated to bonds, their bond portfolio might now be $1,050,000 (60% of $1,750,000), $750,000 of which is already allocated and providing $30,000 in income. 

That leaves $300,000 ($1,050,000 – $750,000) to be allocated to bonds from their nest-egg.  This decreases their nest-egg bond and cash allocation from the original $600,000 to $300,000, and therefore raises their stock allocation from $400,000 to $700,000.   If long-term inflation is an issue – and it is – then were June and Ward really risking being under-allocated to stocks?

The ‘guaranteed’ $30,000 cash flow, representing an illiquid asset, provides them with the ability, i.e., gives them the freedom, to still address short-term needs and objectives with $300,000, while allowing more money, $700,000) to address long-term inflation risk.

Historically, stocks have performed, simply because they represent the economic engine of the United States.   And, it has never made sense to bet against the U.S.A.   Pistons drive the engine and the engine provides forward movement.

Jim

Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

Opinions expressed are those of the author.  The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Are the Markets On Their Way Back?

Markets always do; but strategies in the future will have to be different.

iStock Images

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Maybe. You might think so. 

While the S&P was down 10.5% year-to-date as of Friday, it’s still UP 1.1% for the last 12 months while foreign stocks actually lost 13.1%.  Who’d a thunk it?   And, the real surprise is the NASDAQ index of small stocks, down only 3.3% for the year and actually UP 9.3% for the last 12 months as of Friday’s close[i].  The 10-year Treasury has gained 17.9% as the yield plummeted to just 0.65%[ii].

The core consumer price index (CPI) is holding at 2.1%[iii]; but, as we see huge stimulus spending driving up the debt, the inevitable result may be too much money chasing too few goods and services, thus driving up inflation – an argument to get the economy moving again in order to drive up production while increasing the job numbers and sources of revenue.  Debt as a percentage of the GDP will be the key figure to watch.

A key worry is a debt spiral. Treasury secretary Mnuchin is already trying to fund the growing budget deficit – the $2.2 trillion stimulus package is the largest ever passed.   John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at Natwest Markets, thinks the sheer amount of debt coming is really a war-time sort of funding.

The government has been selling short-term debt (Treasury bills that mature in one year or less) virtually as fast as possible – and more is coming.

The fiscal 2020 deficit – a deficit that needs to be funded somehow – will be four times as large as last year’s $3.8 trillion – almost 19% of GDP, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan group.  Few on ‘the hill’ see a need for caution right now, given the threat of the virus, but there is little doubt corrective action will be on the horizon.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Company say GDP will shrink an annualized 40% in the second quarter, according to a feature in Bloomberg News.   That, of course, means a huge amount of debt is coming in the second quarter. 

Having a solid formal financial plan with the right allocation is now more important than ever.  The markets will come back, but because of the CARES Act and the SECURE Act – and added market volatility – the strategies that used to work are now changing.

Jim

[i] Source: MacroBond Financial AB. S&P 500 is represented by the S&P 500 Index, DJIA is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ is represented by the NASDAQ Composite Index, Foreign Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index and Emerging Markets are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Sectors based on S&P 500 Index sector indexes. You cannot purchase an index.

[ii] Source: MacroBond Financial AB, Morningstar Inc., Bloomberg LP. 10-Yr Treasury is represented by the MacroBond 10-Year Treasury Bond Index.

[iii] Source: MacroBond Financial AB, Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate), US Department of Labor (Inflation and Unemployment) and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).

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Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

Opinions expressed are those of the author.  The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Is Inflation on the Horizon?

We’ve been below 2% for a long time; but, will it continue?

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

So far, tariff-induced inflation simply hasn’t arrived.  You’d think if it was going to, it would be here by now.   And, the reason is simple:  If inflation was in the ‘pipeline’, goods in current inventory would be marked-up in advance in order to raise cash to cover new inventory acquisition costs. 

We’ve seen this before.  When Mideast oil prices increased, prices at the local gas pumps went up immediately.  But, that hasn’t happened with the trade-tariff fears.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues it’s race to the bottom.  But, after the most recent cut, the dollar strengthened, making American goods more expensive and reducing demand – opposite the Fed’s intention.  Weaker dollars attract foreign capital, increasing exports for American companies; so, the Fed’s losing-streak continues.

Vanguard and Wall Street Journal economists expect inflation to be closer to 2% over the next few years; but, as we know, predictions are one thing, surprises are something else.   Inflation has been less than 2% over the past ten years, so it wouldn’t be surprising that the Fed would allow it to run above that number for a period.

For investors, this is where diversification can play a key role.  Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are probably the best and purest form of hedging inflation.   Another potential hedge is short-term corporate bonds.  This is because if inflation is driven by a strong economy, consumption will increase and profits should be strong; however, it’s important to know what you’re doing:  It’s important to understand credit risk – not simply trusting ratings – as well as the average duration of your bond portfolio, as well as how that duration has changed over time.

Of course, bonds can be effective as short-term inflation hedges; but a long-term time frame is another story.  Nothing has outperformed stocks and bonds simply haven’t.

Remember, it’s not an either-or proposition.  It’s about having a portfolio diversification design that fits your own desires and objectives – and your attitudes about risk.   Best to work this out with someone who has seen it all a few hundred times and can help navigate the financial marketplace.

If you don’t know where to find professional help, you can ask your family and friends; you can also consult these resources:

The CFP® Board

The Financial Planning Association

Of course, if you’re not a current IFG client, I hope you will consider checking out the tabs at the top of this page.

Hope this helps,

Jim


Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

 

 

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and an ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Are You Managing Money? Maybe you should be managing risk.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Markets are sensitive to risk.  We know that.  According to analysts at Lockwood Advisors, only 8% of global economies are now growing above recent averages; but, the U.S. is still the best; the G10 countries are the worst.   Headwinds do include politics:  Many market insiders are worried about a reversal of tax cuts and the anti-business stance of many incoming members of Congress.

Just like back in 1950 (remember?) the U.S. economy has been growing above recent potential, propelled by the growth spurt from major corporate and personal tax cuts; however these cuts just might have staying power since they’re not based on wealth redistribution.  The real headwinds just may be coming from two economic realities:  Demographics and the large U.S. government debt.

The aging population, increasing the percentage of the population in the decumulation stage, may apply downward pressure on growth for decades.  The Administration on Aging estimates that the population age 60 or older will increase by 21% between 2010 and 2020 and by 39% between 2010 and 2050.

Most people, it’s safe to say, think of future market returns using a frame of reference based on the past.  Indeed, most advisors – I’m guilty too – continually put-up mountain charts to show clients what’s happened before even as we tell them it’s no guarantee it will happen again.  But, the baby-boomers who remember the 1950s and 1960s – and especially the go-go 1990s – should be reminded the current is no longer flowing in the same direction.   Defensive allocations just might be the best defense going forward.

Hope you find this helpful!

Jim

 


Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and an ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Here’s Your 10-Point Financial Discussion Checklist!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

How does your financial future look?  Your chances for financial freedom will depend on how well you’ve covered your bases!

Here’s a checklist for your kitchen table discussions:

  1. When do you plan to retire?  Your retirement age will impact how many years of spending your retirement assets will have to cover.  It will also likely affect just how much you may spend each year.
  2. What are your retirement goals?  Get them down in writing and sort them by needs, wants, and wishes – the prioritize each goal and put a dollar amount on each of them.  For those that are recurring, you’ll not only need to put a dollar amount on each event, but you’ll need to adjust for inflation, as well (car purchases are an example).
  3. When do you plan to file for and start Social Security payments?  How will this affect your tax picture when combined with other sources of income from retirement plans, etc.
  4. How will you design your investment portfolio to provide both income and inflation protection while mitigating downside risk?
  5. Will you need to reduce living expenses?  If so, where can you cut?  Not everyone will need to, but running out of money in your old age wouldn’t be a happy picture either.
  6. Should you get a reverse mortgage?  Does it really provide the security the commercials talk about or is it just a band-aid?
  7. Have you provided for the possible need for long-term care?  Long-term care policies are available, however many are concerned about not using the benefits after paying out high premiums for years.  Some policies also have many restrictions.  It’s worth reviewing the fine print.
  8. How will you protect yourself against financial fraud?  This can take many forms, from cyber threats to the Bernie Madoffs of the world.
  9. How can your spouse and children be protected when the main breadwinner is gone?
  10. Is creating a financial legacy important to you?   This can be accomplished for children and grandchildren, but they’re not the only ones.  Some people think giving is only for the rich; but affluent people often wish to do it, too.

Hope you find this helpful!

Jim

 


Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and an ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Managing Retirement Income Decisions During Retirement

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Managing retirement income has never been easy.  Those who retired in the early 1970s saw interest rates rise dramatically, then fall the same way – all within about a 15-year period.   When interest rates were going up, it made them feel good; but, few paid attention to inflation or tax implications.   During one period, interest rates were in the double-digits, but so was inflation, which meant their “increased” income wasn’t really increasing at all.    Money is worth only what it buys at the checkout counter.

So, the retiree who felt great about a 15% interest rate during 15% inflation (yes, it really happened and could happen again, blindsiding people who didn’t live through it before), weren’t really getting a raise at all – and that was before taxes!

The real problem, of course, came when interest rates began to fall.  During the period that interest rates (and inflation) dropped to 12% from 15%, retirees were seeing their incomes drop by 20% (a 3% drop in rates from 15%) while still seeing prices rise by 12%.

How do you manage income in retirement?  It ain’t easy.

Naturally, you could consider a basic withdrawal sequence using a straightforward strategy to take money in the following order:

  1. Required minimum distributions (RMDs) from IRAs, 401(k), or other qualified retirement accounts.
  2. Taxable accounts, such as brokerage and bank accounts.
  3. Tax-deferred traditional IRAs, 401(k), and other similar accounts
  4. Tax-free money – from Roth IRAs for example

This sequence can provide an order of withdrawals; but, other than the RMDs, it doesn’t tell you how much!

But wait! (as they say on tv).

How much?  And, how can you be sure you won’t run out of money?

RMD can provide a clue!

The RMD calculations can provide sound guidance for your entire portfolio!  Using the IRS formulas, Craig Iraelson, executive-in-residence in the financial planning program at Utah Valley University, did some back-testing with hypothetical portfolios invested in different investment allocations with RMD withdrawals starting in 1970 (the beginning of a relatively flat ten-year stock market).   Using beginning values, and even with a portfolio invested in 100% cash, there was still $850,000 left after 25 years!   And, a portfolio that was 25% stocks had $2 million left.

RMDs appear to address longevity risk pretty well; but, there’s another question.   Is the income level provided by the RMDs enough to preserve the pre-retirement lifestyle – or anything close?

There’s the rub.  In the back-tested portfolios, the initial RMD was 3.65% of assets… and that falls within the widely-accepted 4% rule…  but, that’s only $36,500 of pre-tax income.  Even if the retiree family has an additional $30,000 from Social Security, that’s still just $66,500 before taxes; and, for many successful individuals, that isn’t enough.

So, there’s the trade-off:  Sacrifice income for longevity, or accept longevity risk in order to take increased income.

Fotilla Images

Maybe there’s another way.    How can a couple have more freedom to take greater income early while still addressing the risk of running out of “late-life income”?

My “Late Life Income” report shows how many couples have addressed this issue.   You can access it here!

By the way, when you get my report, you’ll also receive a subscription to my ezine.    If you decide you don’t want the ezine when you receive it, you’ll be able to unsubscribe immediately with a single click and, of course, your email is never shared with anyone.

Enjoy the report!  Hope you find it helpful.

 

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

A Guaranteed Income for Life?

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

In a previous post I talked about how everyone now has to be his/her own actuary, if they want to create a guaranteed income for life.

I’ve even provided a 20-minute educational video on how it’s possible to actually create a guaranteed income for life.  I think you’ll find it helpful; grab a cup of coffee and you can register to take a look.

While I’m at it, here’s a link to a report that takes a deeper look at a a ‘hybrid’ scenario many investors might find attractive.  I think you’ll find the report interesting, if not eye-opening.  You can access it here.

How does one GUARANTEE an income for life?  Well, there’s only ONE way to guarantee that outcome:  An annuity.  NO OTHER FINANCIAL TOOL WILL DO THIS.

Oh, yes, they do get bad press (what doesn’t?).  The real problem, though is the confusion around the different types of annuities that exists.

  1. Variable annuities
  2. Equity-indexed annuities
  3. Fixed annuities – can be either immediate or deferred

Options #1 and 2 can be problematic.  They are often loaded with excess costs, moving parts, and restrictions.

Option #3 is generally more straightforward.  It’s more of an I.O.U. with the insurance company.  You pay them; they pay you.

Here are some sample payout examples.  Take the first one:  the payout represents a 6.54% payout; and as you can see, the payouts do increase with age.

There’s a trade-off, however, the money is not just illiquid – it’s gone!  You are essentially buying an income stream for life!   You’re paying cash for a secure retirement.

So, should you do that with all your money?  Probably not.  It should not be an ‘all or nothing’ strategy.  That’s why I think you’ll find this report on a hybrid strategy helpful.

If you would like help, of course, we can always visit by phone.  Just pick a time convenient for you.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

The Provisional Income Trap

 

… and what it means to your retirement income – particularly your Social Security taxation in retirement.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Most people believe that municipal bond interest is tax-free and won’t affect taxation on their retirement income.   Well, it is, I guess; but, there are tax ramifications few people have heard about.   It’s called “provisional income”.

Huh?

There are categories of income which, when added up, determine how much provisional income you’ve received in a given year.  And, during retirement, when you’re likely receiving Social Security income,  the amount of provisional income you receive determines just how much you’ll pay in taxes on your Social Security Income.

As you can see, when adding up your provisional income, it begins with 50% of your Social Security income.  Then they add in all distributions from tax-deferred accounts.  If you’re in retirement, that includes money you’re taking from your 401(k) or IRAs (except distributions from a Roth IRA, which are generally tax-free, and any money you’ve taken from a properly-structured permanent life insurance policy (withdrawals up to your cost-basis and policy loans).  And, as you can see, municipal bond interest is counted.

Once you’ve added up all your provisional income, how much do you owe in taxes?  Well, it depends.  Here are the provisional income thresholds.

If you’re a married couple and your provisional income is below $32,000 for the tax year, you will pay no txes on your Social Security income.  If your income is over $44,000, however, then 85% of your Social Security income will be taxable.  The whole idea was part of a package passed back in the 1980s to save Social Security.  One thing they didn’t do:  index it for inflation.

So, as your 401(k) grows and your assets grow—more importantly, as inflation continues through the years and it will require greater withdrawals for you to live in retirement—the greater the likelihood you’ll be paying taxes on your Social Security.  It doesn’t take much to get past $44,000 in retirement.

Let’s take a quick  look at an example:  Fred and Wilma.  They have $30,000 in combined Social Security income and also take $40,000 annually from their IRAs, giving them a $70,000 income in retirement.

For computing their provisional income, only half of their Social Security income is used.  Added to their IRA distributions, they have $55,000 in provisional income, meaning that 85% of their Social Security income ($25,500) is taxable at their tax rate.  If they’re paying taxes at 30%, their tax bill will be $7,650.

But if they need the entire $70,000 they’ve taken as income, they’ll have to take an additional distribution just to pay the tax bill, and, oh yes, it’s taxable, too.

But, Fred and Wilma have another problem they’re likely completely unaware of.  There’s a ticking time-bomb growing inside their 401(k).  It’s growing.

How can that be bad?  Well, it isn’t, of course, but it might come at a huge price.  If history has taught us anything, it’s that governments exist to get re-elected and they help insure than through spending which never seems to get undone.  Our nation’s huge debt  is growing and the money to pay the bills will have to come from somewhere—and it won’t come from people with no money.   With an ageing demographic bubble moving into the decumulation stage  and wanting more services, particularly health care, the long-term outlook for taxes can’t be too encouraging.    Let’s get back to Fred and Wilma:

If Fred’s 401(k) continues to grow at an 8% average annual rate until he’s 65, he’ll have a balance of over $2 million!  And, at age 71, when he’ll be required to take required minimum distributions (RMDs), his balance will be over $3 million—requiring RMDs of over $115,000 annually.

Fred and Wilma will be paying a lot of taxes.

And, as mentioned earlier, the long-term outlook for taxes isn’t likely very good.  Just take a look at the differences from 2012 to 2017.

How can Fred and Wilma mitigate, and maybe eliminate, their income tax payments in retirement?

Under current tax law, each has a personal exemption of $4,050, so they have $8,100 in combined personal exemptions.  They also have their deductions.  If they’re using the standard deduction, they’ll have $12,700 too, giving them a total of $20,800 in exemptions and deductions.   So, their key is to keep their  taxable income below $20,800.   All income above the standard deduction and personal exemption is subject to tax.

The good news is that  Fred and Wilma are still in their 50s and there’s plenty of time to plan.  Working with their Certified Financial Planner®professional, they can begin “reverse –engineering” the placement of assets in a way they can still grow their nest-egg, but re-arrange their ‘tax buckets’ so Uncle Sam becomes less of a partner—or no partner at all, which would be the ideal making their tax-jockeying a moot issue.  You can get our piece on 4 Steps to a Tax-Free Retirement.  I think you’ll like it.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Is the 4% Rule Still Valid?

 

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Ever hear about the 4% Rule?  It’s about safe withdrawal rates for retirement income.  If you’ve been following my pontifications over the years, you probably recognize this; but, if the rule is unfamiliar to you, here’s a brief description.

The 4% rule was the result of some back-testing and research by a financial advisor named William Bengen.  The objective was to identify a ‘safe’ withdrawal rate for retirement income that would answer the question, “How much can I safely withdraw from my portfolio without having to worry about running out of money?”

His results were published in 1994 and identified 4% as the withdrawal rate that would provide an 80% success probability over a 30-year period, regardless of market conditions.

Of course, it’s a probability based on back-testing.  The problem investors face is that inflation, which has been historically low for some time now, could rear it’s ugly head and impact withdrawals significantly.  So, we’re still dealing in probabilities.

Let’s look at a hypothetical example:

The ending annual expenses using a 7% inflation rate is 53.8% higher than if inflation remains at 2% for the entire decade.  Is 7% an unreasonable figure?  If you’re old enough be be concerned about outliving your money – or your income – you know it’s very reasonable.  Remember the double-digit inflation of the late 1970s?

What does that do to our probabilities discussion?  GIGO.

Planning is as much about what we don’t know as what we know.  It’s about testing and stress-testing our assumptions.

For many, the real question is not whether money will last – it doesn’t do much good to have some money if that money won’t produce the income you need to maintain your desired lifestyle – it’s whether you will have the inflation-adjusted income you will need.

Key question:  Are you comfortable dealing with probabilities or guarantees?  The strategy that’s right for you will be different depending on your answer.

We know that many retirement expenses are guaranteed; but, how of the income required to meet those expenses is also guaranteed?  If having a guaranteed income floor is important to you, we have an educational video you might enjoy viewing.

If you woretirement income planninguld like to see it, grab a cup of coffee – it’s about 20-minutes long – and you’ll learn about a process for arranging assets that may be eye-opening,  you can do so by clicking here.

Your Roadmap?

This educational video depicts an eye-opening strategy.  The specific financial tools used to implement this strategy will be different for each individual, depending on specific needs and desires; but, it is a strategy that could put retirement on ‘auto-pilot’.  Keep in mind, this is but one strategy for addressing retirement income needs.  There are others.  The one that’s right for you would depend on your plan

The plan comes first.  We don’t do “ready-fire-aim”.

If you would like help, of course, we can always visit by phone.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Retirement and Income Taxes

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Who better to talk about taxes in retirement and income taxes than a CPA?  You may be familiar with Ed Slott from his frequent appearances on PBS.  One of the very few gurus who actually is the real deal:  A CPA who is recognized even inside the financial profession as an expert – he even teaches CFP Board-approved continuing education classes.

Mr. Slott does have a unique ability to present financial topics in an easy-to-understand, entertaining way.  One of the hot topics right now is protecting retirement income from taxation.  The topic is hot primarily because of two issues:  Longevity risk (outliving our money) and taxation risk (the government debt is huge and the outlook over the next two decades, when we’ll need money the most, is that taxes are bound to rise).

I think you’ll find this video interesting.

If you’d like a report on how you might be able to create a tax-free retirement, you can get it here.

If you would like help, of course, we can always visit by phone.

Enjoy the video and report!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.