The Investment Model And It’s Amazing Hidden Powers.

Few understand the power of the investment allocation model, even in – especially in – times of crisis; but the power can be great when tied to a long-range financial plan.

Power of the Model

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

I can almost guarantee that not many people fully realize the power of an investment model as a means to fulfill a long-range financial plan, even in – or especially in – times of crisis.

The chances of a V-shaped recovery appear to be slim; not just because of the chances of a new spike in the pandemic due to possible premature reopening of the economy, it’s more about how market recoveries generally occur; yet, the power of the investment model remains unknown to many.

Many people intuitively believe that a 20% loss can be recaptured with a 20% gain; but, of course it’s not true.   If you start out with $100, a 20% loss takes you down to $80.   But, to get back to $100, you need to see your $80 grow by 25% ($20 ÷ $80).  So, knowing that it takes a 25% gain to buy back a 20% loss, it’s easy to see why recoveries generally take longer than the original decline.

When we suffer declines in the market, it can be tempting for some people to sell on the way down in an attempt to cut their losses.  The problem, of course is that calling the ‘bottom’ is difficult, because recoveries seldom occur in a straight line.  Next thing they know, the recovery happened and they missed the rebound forcing them to buy back in at a new high.  As you can see from this chart, a simple buy-and-hold philosophy would have been much easier without forcing them to become a market genius.  After all, if Warren Buffett can’t time markets – and he says he can’t – than, why should we try?

Market Timing

That’s where the power of the investment allocation model comes in.

Those who’ve been smart enough to build their financial future with a blueprint tend to have a framework for fulfilling their long-range strategic plan.  On the investment side of their planning, the foundation is an customized asset allocation.  What few realize is that that allocation has an automatic buy low/sell high mechanism that comes built-in!

Let’s look at a simplified example:

Since we talking about stocks more than bonds, let’s use an example of a simple growth-oriented allocation that’s comprised of 70% stocks and 30% bonds, with the majority of the stocks in the domestic U.S. market (represented here using the S&P index) and a lesser amount in foreign stocks (represented here using a Europe, Asia, and Far East index).

Sample Allocation

Let’s assume our hypothetical investor has $500,000 invested.  To make it simple, basic stock-bond allocation would look like this:

Stocks:  $350,000   =  70%
Bonds:   $150,000   =  30%
Total:     $500,000   =  100%

Now, let’s suppose stocks drop by 20% (we’ll pretend bonds stay the same).  Our new allocation would look something like this:

Stocks:  $280,000  =  65%
Bonds:   $150,000  =  35%
Total:     $430,000  = 100%

Stocks are now underweighted by 5% and bonds are now overweighted 5%.  The great thing about models is that they can, and usually are, rebalanced on some type of schedule or according to some built-in protocol.  To get back to our original allocation, money will have to be reallocated from bonds into stocks – the rebalancing ensures that we’re now buying low.

In order to get stocks back to their 70% weighting, we’ll need to bring the stock total to $301,000 ($430,000 x 70%).  That will require moving $21,000 from bonds ($301,000 – $280,000).  So, our rebalanced allocation is now:

Stocks:  $301,000 = 70%
Bonds:   $129,000 = 30%
Total:     $430,000 = 100%

Now, over time, the stock market finally recovers the 25% needed to get back to where it was.  That 25% gain in stocks adds $75,250 to stock value:

Stocks:  $376,250  =  74%
Bonds:  $129,000  =  26%
Total:    $505,250  = 100%

Notice, we didn’t just get back to where we were before, we actually made money!  We ‘beat the market’?  How did that happen?  The market returned to where it was but we ended-up ahead!  

Rebalancing the investment model allowed us to buy low and sell high without being a market genius!

Now, of course, this is a over-simplified hypothetical (you can’t buy an index and I’ve ignored things like the time-frame involved, taxes, inflation, and a lot of other stuff), but, the concept is no less valid.

Oh, yes, rebalancing again now, getting us back to our original allocation, now means that we’re `selling high’ as the 4% overweighted stock money is now repositioned back to bonds until next time.

Not bad, eh?

Jim

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Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

Opinions expressed are those of the author.  The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Would You Build A House Without a Blueprint?

I wouldn’t. I also wouldn’t be driving in a strange city without a GPS.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

It looks like the COVID-19 issue is going to be with us for awhile; the U.S. is still seeing over 25,000 new cases each day and some medical experts think we’re in a two-year process, which makes some sense considering the time it takes to get a vaccine into mass distribution, as well as getting the public to embrace it the way they did the polio vaccine in the 1950s.

Congress, of course, has been passing relief measures which, among some, are raising concerns about the national debt which now stands around at 100% of GDP while unemployment payments in excess of normal wages are creating a disincentive for some Americans to return to work until August, when those benefits are due to expire.

We’e in, of course, an ‘event-driven’ bear market which some would call a structural bear in that it is the result of a government-induced forced shut-down. Given that about 70% of our economy is driven by the consumer and no one knows when they will feel safe enough to work, shop, travel, and go to sporting events (a $12-billion industry) – not to mention the achievement of mass innoculation; some experts believe that the bear could last as long as 42 months.

Whenever economic crisis occurs – and it has on numerous occasions throughout history – the lesson comes home that building a financial house without a blueprint makes for bad construction and a poor outcome. That blueprint, of course, is a financial plan that serves as the foundation for an investment process – and a process is not a group of transactions. Today, of course, those who’ve done it the right way are seeing the value, and the power, of having a model to follow and stay within.

If you have a plan, make sure you keep it updated. If not, maybe it’s time to begin one.  If you’d like some help, you can begin your process here.

Jim

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Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

Opinions expressed are those of the author.  The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

How Social Security and Pensions Might Impact How You Arrange Your Nest-Egg.

Few people think about this, but you might want to.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Everyone intuitively understands the need to have a balanced approach to meet retirement needs; however, it’s also important to address risk in light of the long term inflation risk.  

Let’s take a hypothetical example using simple numbers.  And, suppose after all the data gathering, goal setting, and risk assessments have been completed in the financial planning process, June and Ward Cleaver (yes, I am that old) have decided they feel comfortable with a portfolio that’s comprised of 60% bonds and cash and 40% in stocks.  

June and Ward are retiring today after over thirty years of working and saving—they’ve done a lot of thing right—and have accumulated a nest-egg of $1 million.   So, in our simple example, that would indicate their money should be arranged with $600,000 allocated to bonds and cash, and $400,000 to stocks.  Simple.

But, suppose the two of them also have Social Security income—maybe even pension income, as well.  This additional ongoing cash flow shouldn’t be ignored in constructing their allocation.    Again, to keep numbers simple (I’m highly qualified for simple numbers).  Let’s say Ward and June have an additional $30,000 in annual ongoing income to augment their savings.   

What does that $30,000 annual income represent?  How much would someone need to have invested to provide the same income?

Assuming a 4% annual withdrawal rate on assets  – we’ll say that fits June and Ward’s situation  –  that $30,000 represents income on an additional $750,000 in assets… except these assets are illiquid:   June and Ward can only take the income, they can’t ‘cash in’ the principal.   It is like, in effect, an annuity, something some people use to simply ‘purchase’ a lifetime income.   I’m not a big proponent, but they do have their place in some situations—but that’s another story.

Nevertheless, if we consider that $30,000 annual income as actually representing an additional asset, June and Ward really effectively have $1,750,000 in assets, $750,000 of which we’ll consider illiquid and providing an income of $30,000 at 4%, but it never runs out of money.   If 60% of their total retirement ‘assets’ is to be allocated to bonds, their bond portfolio might now be $1,050,000 (60% of $1,750,000), $750,000 of which is already allocated and providing $30,000 in income. 

That leaves $300,000 ($1,050,000 – $750,000) to be allocated to bonds from their nest-egg.  This decreases their nest-egg bond and cash allocation from the original $600,000 to $300,000, and therefore raises their stock allocation from $400,000 to $700,000.   If long-term inflation is an issue – and it is – then were June and Ward really risking being under-allocated to stocks?

The ‘guaranteed’ $30,000 cash flow, representing an illiquid asset, provides them with the ability, i.e., gives them the freedom, to still address short-term needs and objectives with $300,000, while allowing more money, $700,000) to address long-term inflation risk.

Historically, stocks have performed, simply because they represent the economic engine of the United States.   And, it has never made sense to bet against the U.S.A.   Pistons drive the engine and the engine provides forward movement.

Jim

Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

Opinions expressed are those of the author.  The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Are the Markets On Their Way Back?

Markets always do; but strategies in the future will have to be different.

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Maybe. You might think so. 

While the S&P was down 10.5% year-to-date as of Friday, it’s still UP 1.1% for the last 12 months while foreign stocks actually lost 13.1%.  Who’d a thunk it?   And, the real surprise is the NASDAQ index of small stocks, down only 3.3% for the year and actually UP 9.3% for the last 12 months as of Friday’s close[i].  The 10-year Treasury has gained 17.9% as the yield plummeted to just 0.65%[ii].

The core consumer price index (CPI) is holding at 2.1%[iii]; but, as we see huge stimulus spending driving up the debt, the inevitable result may be too much money chasing too few goods and services, thus driving up inflation – an argument to get the economy moving again in order to drive up production while increasing the job numbers and sources of revenue.  Debt as a percentage of the GDP will be the key figure to watch.

A key worry is a debt spiral. Treasury secretary Mnuchin is already trying to fund the growing budget deficit – the $2.2 trillion stimulus package is the largest ever passed.   John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at Natwest Markets, thinks the sheer amount of debt coming is really a war-time sort of funding.

The government has been selling short-term debt (Treasury bills that mature in one year or less) virtually as fast as possible – and more is coming.

The fiscal 2020 deficit – a deficit that needs to be funded somehow – will be four times as large as last year’s $3.8 trillion – almost 19% of GDP, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan group.  Few on ‘the hill’ see a need for caution right now, given the threat of the virus, but there is little doubt corrective action will be on the horizon.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Company say GDP will shrink an annualized 40% in the second quarter, according to a feature in Bloomberg News.   That, of course, means a huge amount of debt is coming in the second quarter. 

Having a solid formal financial plan with the right allocation is now more important than ever.  The markets will come back, but because of the CARES Act and the SECURE Act – and added market volatility – the strategies that used to work are now changing.

Jim

[i] Source: MacroBond Financial AB. S&P 500 is represented by the S&P 500 Index, DJIA is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ is represented by the NASDAQ Composite Index, Foreign Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index and Emerging Markets are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Sectors based on S&P 500 Index sector indexes. You cannot purchase an index.

[ii] Source: MacroBond Financial AB, Morningstar Inc., Bloomberg LP. 10-Yr Treasury is represented by the MacroBond 10-Year Treasury Bond Index.

[iii] Source: MacroBond Financial AB, Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate), US Department of Labor (Inflation and Unemployment) and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP).

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Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

Opinions expressed are those of the author.  The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Market Crisis in Perspective

A Picture is worth…. you know.

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Is the media overplaying the stock market pullback?

No more than usual.   This has all happened before – just different story lines.  Take a look at the following charts from JP Morgan:

How long do these downturns last?

Last week someone asked me (some people think all advisors are stockbrokers) whether he should be in or out of the market.  

Jim

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Interested in becoming an IFG client?  Why play phone tag?  Schedule your 15-minute introductory phone call!

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® in his 21st year of private practice as Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a fee-only registered investment advisor with clients located in New York, Florida, and California. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742.  IFG helps specializes in crafting wealth design strategies around life goals by using a proven planning process coupled with a cost-conscious objective and non-conflicted risk management philosophy.

The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Is Inflation on the Horizon?

We’ve been below 2% for a long time; but, will it continue?

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

So far, tariff-induced inflation simply hasn’t arrived.  You’d think if it was going to, it would be here by now.   And, the reason is simple:  If inflation was in the ‘pipeline’, goods in current inventory would be marked-up in advance in order to raise cash to cover new inventory acquisition costs. 

We’ve seen this before.  When Mideast oil prices increased, prices at the local gas pumps went up immediately.  But, that hasn’t happened with the trade-tariff fears.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues it’s race to the bottom.  But, after the most recent cut, the dollar strengthened, making American goods more expensive and reducing demand – opposite the Fed’s intention.  Weaker dollars attract foreign capital, increasing exports for American companies; so, the Fed’s losing-streak continues.

Vanguard and Wall Street Journal economists expect inflation to be closer to 2% over the next few years; but, as we know, predictions are one thing, surprises are something else.   Inflation has been less than 2% over the past ten years, so it wouldn’t be surprising that the Fed would allow it to run above that number for a period.

For investors, this is where diversification can play a key role.  Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are probably the best and purest form of hedging inflation.   Another potential hedge is short-term corporate bonds.  This is because if inflation is driven by a strong economy, consumption will increase and profits should be strong; however, it’s important to know what you’re doing:  It’s important to understand credit risk – not simply trusting ratings – as well as the average duration of your bond portfolio, as well as how that duration has changed over time.

Of course, bonds can be effective as short-term inflation hedges; but a long-term time frame is another story.  Nothing has outperformed stocks and bonds simply haven’t.

Remember, it’s not an either-or proposition.  It’s about having a portfolio diversification design that fits your own desires and objectives – and your attitudes about risk.   Best to work this out with someone who has seen it all a few hundred times and can help navigate the financial marketplace.

If you don’t know where to find professional help, you can ask your family and friends; you can also consult these resources:

The CFP® Board

The Financial Planning Association

Of course, if you’re not a current IFG client, I hope you will consider checking out the tabs at the top of this page.

Hope this helps,

Jim


Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

 

 

Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and an ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

What To Do With Business Sale Proceeds

Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

 

When you receive business sale proceeds, you’ll likely pay a capital gains tax; but, that may not be the end of the story.

Suppose you have $1 million or more after the sale – money you’d like to put somewhere for future use – but you also want growth with safety and tax-deferral, too!

You could use our 401(k); however, there are funding limits in any given year and those limits don’t carry over.  Besides, the safety issue could be problematic.

Bank certificates of deposit can provide safety, but not growth or tax-deferral.

If you’re selling your business next year, you’ve waited too long to plan.  However, if your sale is scheduled for ten, fifteen, or twenty years from now, this IS the time to get your ducks lined-up – and this report might help.
Click Here!
By the way, when you get the report, you’ll also be subscribed to our free ezine.  If you decide you don’t want it, simply unsubscribe at any time – your name will be removed immediately.  IFG will never share your email address with anyone for any reason.

If you would like help, of course, we can always visit by phone.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Business Owners Face Potential Tax Law Changes

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

1954

1986

2017

What do those years have in common?    If you guessed those were the years of major tax reform, you’d be right—at least about the first two.  2017 is still a question mark.

While tax law changes can occur quite often, major reforms appear to come around about every thirty years.    Business owners, unlike the rest of America, will have to deal with the impact of any changes on both the personal and business front.

Most Americans don’t own businesses and can be excused for not understanding many of the issues business owners face.    First, most businesses tend to be small – proprietor-owned – and are therefore taxed at individual rates; and that includes partnerships.  They don’t get taxed at the lower corporate rate; yet, these owners represent most of the job creation.  Those who are successful, pay at high rates – and even more if they’re in a high tax state!   It’s not uncommon for a successful small business owner in a high-tax state, like California or New York, to be faced with having to make $300,000 in pretax profit, only to see half of it go to federal, state, and local government, leaving about $150,000.  Sound like a lot?  Not if you’re in one of those high cost-of-living states, which usually happen to be the same ones, in which case $150,000 is often just middle-income.   Makes it pretty hard to create jobs for other people – often the reason many of these businesses often relocate to low-tax states (with a lower cost of living) to grow their businesses, where they find it easier to create jobs.

How about corporations?  Most Americans don’t realize that those who incorporate their businesses are taxed twice.   Their business pays a tax on profits BEFORE the business pays a salary to the business owner, who then must pay a second income tax!  And, of course, we’re back to the high income-tax state issue.

The government drains money from the people who create the jobs; so, no wonder – as people want to see more jobs in the economy – tax reform is such a big issue.

Proposed Changes for Business

Under the proposed tax bill, which still faces much debate, the corporate tax rate would be reduced to 20% – a substantial cut.  S-Corps would see their rate drop to  25%.  Well, maybe not – what day is it?  This all changes with the wind until it’s law.

One of the proposed changes, favored by many business owners,  would allow for the expensing of capital expenditures—no doubt in an  effort to spur growth.   However, there could be a fly in the ointment for many business owners in a provision no one’s talking about.

You’ve heard about the  ‘border tax’.  Under this provision, there would be no cost-of-goods deduction on imported goods—a potential problem for many retailers, as well as manufacturers who outsource some or all of their supply chain.

Many businesses that have spent years researching and developing their supply chains may face some formidable challenges.  There would be a deduction for the cost of goods exported.

Finally, there would be no deduction for business loan interest under the proposed plan.  This may not be a big issue now, given today’s low interest rates; but, it could become a major issue if we should ever experience the double-digit interest rates similar to those of the late 1970s.

Business owners are individuals, too.

As if dealing with all a business owner faces isn’t enough, there’s also the personal side.   There are  some potential changes looming on the horizon there worth knowing about.

Individual tax rates would come down and reduced to three brackets.

The elimination of all itemized deductions except for mortgages and charitable contributions is also popular with many, but not everyone.  The proposed change for charitable deductions limits those deductions to $100,000 for a single payer and $200,000 for a married couple.  It may become difficult for a  charity to convince a multi-millionaire to donate that $1 million work of art !

And, while there’s talk of repealing the estate tax, it doesn’t appear to be a complete repeal.  The government still wants that unrealized appreciation taxed!  The talk is about going to a system similar to what they have in Canada.

The idea would be to tax unrealized appreciation over $5 million at a capital gains rate.  Taxes on gifts would correspond to eliminate people using gifting to avoid the estate tax.

Finally, the newest proposal would also do away with deductions for medical expenses—or at least have a very high threshold.

All these are proposed—not passed.  But, it’s good to be aware

Fotilla Images

of what could be on the horizon.

What Should Business Owners Do?

You might discuss these points with your tax advisor—I am not a CPA.  I am a CFP®, AIF®,,,,  EIEIO.

 

Planning Point

If you don’t have an executive bonus plan, you may want to consider starting one and paying the bonus before March 15, 1018.  Same if you do have one.  Your business gets the 2017 deduction while the employee may be paying tax on the bonus received at lower tax rates.   If you’re `grossing up’ the bonus to cover the employee’s  tax payment, that would be under the 2018 rates, as well—remember, talk to your tax advisor.   If you want to learn more about these plans, you can access my special report here.

Planning Point

Don’t neglect what is probably the most versatile financial tool available today:  cash value life insurance—it has tax benefits that no other financial vehicle can provide and is an ideal retirement supplement—especially for high-earning executives and owners who are limited in what they can put away in qualified tax-deferred vehicles.  Quite often, these executives are stunned to find out those limits simply will not allow the account to provide enough capital at retirement for them to preserve their desired lifestyle.

As David McKnight points out in his book, Tax Free Retirement, life insurance is used as a key retirement strategy by more than 85% of Fortune 500 CEOs and many members of Congress.  The book was also endorsed by retirement guru and CPA Ed Slott, as well as David M. Walker, former Comptroller General of the United States.

Sometimes, I will see arguments against this approach in the media – arguments that are little short of idiotic – but, the simple truth is that insurance, including indexed universal life (IUL) in particular, is becoming widely accepted among leading experts in the profession as a true asset class (in addition to cash, stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities), probably as a result of an aging population with changing priorities and increasing economic uncertainty (where the government’s future need for tax revenue is concerned).

  • Your tax advisor can provide the best insight regarding tax strategy;
  • your estate planning attorney can help you make sure your documents are updated and in order; and
  • your financial advisor should be able to help you arrange assets to fit your needs.

Never use a podiatrist for dental advice.

I hope you found this helpful.

If you would like help, of course, we can always visit by phone.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

Beware of Mortgage Loan Scams

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

First I want to point out that this post is really courtesy of Senior Deputy Becky Purnell of the Moorpark Police who provided this information in the City of Moorpark Guide; but, I thought it was so worthwhile I wanted to relay the information here.

According to Deputy Purnell, you should be aware that scammers are targeting email accounts of realtors and escrow and title companies in order to steal your money!

So, if you are buying a home or refinancing, you should be alert to what could be happening and how to protect yourself.

  • The scammer hacks into the email account of a real estate agent or escrow officer and monitors correspondence between that person and the home buyer.   The scammer then creates an email that is nearly identical to the agent or officer’s email, including their writing style, logos, and signatures.
  • About the time the home buyer would expect to receive instructions on how to wire the money, the scammer sends instructions to wire the money to a specified account which goes to the scammer.  The agent or escrow officer is unaware this is happening

This scam targets people who are in the refinancing process and any other transactions that include the wiring of money.  Here are some ways Deputy Purnell recommends for protecting yourself:

  • Before you wire money, speak with the realtor/escrow officer by phone or in person to get wiring instructions and confirm the account number is legitimate.
  • Do not email financial information.  It isn’t secure.  Many financial firms do what I do:  they provide secure vault access to their clients so that documents never go through an email system.
  • Look for web addresses that begin with https (the s stands for secure).   Don’t click on email links that come in emails – it’s always safer to look up the website’s real URL and type in the address yourself.
  • Be cautious about opening email attachments.  Those files could contain malware.
  • Be sure your browser and software are up to date.

Especially if you’re getting emails from someone you don’t know, never click on the link.   Even when I get a link from my own bank, I never click on it.  I always enter the correct URL manually to gain access.

You can set-up a spreadsheet with columns for website names, URL, ID, Username, Passwords, and security questions and answers; but, make sure you spreadsheet is password protected and not accessible to others (you may want to store the data on an external drive, or example).

Hope this helps!   If you’d like to learn more about IFG, we can always visit by phone.   You can click on that link (if you feel confident), or you can simply go to the IFG website and contact me through the site.  www.indfin.com.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.

There’s More than One Path to Retirement Security

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Jim Lorenzen, CFP®, AIF®

People often think investment strategies for retirement security involve a either/or choices, i.e, risky stocks or savings as a zero-sum choice, or active vs. passive investing as an either/or choice; Believe it or not, there’s more than one path to retirement security.  Sometimes (often) they can be blended.

Active vs. Passive

Vanguard on active vs. passive investingFor example, low-cost passive investments are attractive simply because it’s widely believed that active managers can’t beat their relevant indexes’ average return on a consistent basis.

That’s probably true, however the argument often ignores the downside protection active management can offer – something index investing doesn’t provide, and something important to investors for retirement security.

Does that mean there’s only one path to financial security… that active is better?  No – it’s just different.  Sometimes, the extra fee an active manager charges can be worth far more than the alternative downside exposure.   Vanguard has created a client education piece about active and index investing that you might find helpful.  You can download it here.

Active Institutional Management

Investors with smaller accounts often achieve diversification by investing in mutual funds.  While these investors can benefit from the diversification they offer, those with larger accounts can be penalized.  The reason is simple:  Mutual fund costs don’t scale.

For example, if you have $50,000 invested in a mutual fund that carries a 1.25% expense ratio (just to pick a number), you’re paying $625 a year in annual expenses.  Not too bad.  But, suppose your investment is $500,000 and you have a basket of mutual funds and all charge about the same 1.25%.  Your annual expenses would now total $6,250 per year.

Fund expenses don’t go down as the asset level increases.  1.25%, in our example, would stay 1.25%, regardless of how much your account increases in value.  And, those aren’t the only expenses!  You can learn about the other hidden expenses in another report, Understanding Mutual Funds, which you can also download instantly, right here.

Institutional money managers – at least all those I use – have fully disclosed fees; but, furthermore, their fee percentage actually declines as the investor’s asset level grows.  They can also provide tax-managed benefits not available in mutual funds.

Institutional managers seem to do far better than the individual investor.  As you can see from this independent Dalbar study, individual investors didn’t even come close- and the time period for the study included the famous ‘meltdown’ of 2008.

Institutional investors tend to outperform individual investors.

Screening for investment managersThe selection process for institutional managers, of course, is important, if not critical.

If you’d like to see the process I have been using here at IFG, you can get it here.

Of course, it’s not an either/or proposition:  Blending active institutional management with passive indexes can be quite effective.

It begins with a philosophy.

The key to successDo you know your investment philosophy? By the way, “I don’t want to lose money” is not a philosophy; it’s a wish.  A philosophy goes deeper – it’s the roadmap that helps you as you go through the investment/manager selection process.  IFG’s can be accessed immediately here.

Managing the Downside.

There’s a tv commercial sponsored by a mutual fund/insurance complex that asks the question, “Do you know your number?

While it’s a good question, it doesn’t go far enough.  The real question may not be how much you have, but how long it will last!   After all, that’s the key to almost everyone’s definition of retirement security.

Longevity risk – “Will I run out of money?”

This is the key issue for most Americans; even those with $1,000,000+ who want to maintain their standard of living, let alone the vast majority of Americans who have less.  You might enjoy getting our Money or Income report when you sign-up for the IFG ezine (you can always unsubscribe later).   You can get the report here.

 

 

What’s right for you is likely no one strategy, but a blend of this – and other strategies not even covered here – that best fits your particular needs and desires.

If you would like help, of course, we can always visit by phone.

Enjoy!

Jim


Jim Lorenzen is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional and An Accredited Investment Fiduciary® serving private clients since 1991.   Jim is Founding Principal of The Independent Financial Group, a  registered investment advisor with clients located across the U.S.. He is also licensed for insurance as an independent agent under California license 0C00742. The Independent Financial Group does not provide legal or tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed as securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment to the individual reader. The general information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from an appropriate licensed professional.